NAEP Scores Keep Falling: What Can We Learn from States Bucking the Trend?

When the latest National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results were published last week, education leaders across the country were eager to see if two years of stable schooling and $190 billion in federal recovery funds had helped performance bounce back. The results are in—and the message is clear: Most states fell short. 

The assessment, which measures reading and math performance among 4th and 8th grade U.S. students, shows most states have continued the reading and math declines that accelerated during the pandemic. Between 2019 and 2024, 45 states experienced six-point average drops across subjects and grades. 

The urgency to accelerate learning has never been greater.

The focus on pandemic learning loss misses a more alarming trend: Average U.S. student achievement has been declining for over a decade. Since 2013, national scores have steadily dropped, with 43 states seeing reading and math declines in 4th and 8th grades.

And the gap between the highest- and lowest-performing students is widening. High-achieving students are rebounding, while lower-performing students struggle. One alarming way to interpret the results is this: One-third of eighth graders enter high school unable to identify a text’s main idea.

What would it take for students nationwide to make gains in reading and math? 

No single factor explains these results, and this article does not tackle issues like the impact of pandemic-related school closures, the timing of reopenings, or increased screen time. Instead, we want to learn from the “bright spots”—a few states that, despite national declines, made statistically significant gains and recovered to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Those states are Louisiana (4th grade Reading) and Alabama (4th grade Math). Taking a longer view, only Louisiana, Mississippi, and the District of Columbia have made statistically significant gains on at least one test since 2013.

These bright spots demonstrate that continued progress is possible when good ideas are paired with a focus on delivery—defining clear aspirations, crafting data-driven strategies, and identifying key stakeholders. Here are four delivery lessons the bright spots can teach us.

1. Understand that funding is necessary but not sufficient. It’s how states use it that counts. State and local education agencies (i.e., districts) have seen a tremendous infusion of dollars, but the amount has not tightly correlated with progress—though not for lack of trying. All states have deployed learning recovery strategies, but what seems to make the difference is sustained commitment to well-executed, evidence-based plans. Education leaders in Mississippi and Louisiana, for example, set ambitious literacy goals and took focused steps over several years, directing resources and policy toward achieving them. Alabama—the only state to make statistically significant gains in math since 2019—strengthened instruction through the Alabama Numeracy Act, prioritizing rigor, deploying math coaches, and expanding early-grade interventions. These efforts required new funding, but were successful because of focused leadership and execution.

2. Prioritize what works while balancing opportunities for innovation. Research on states like Louisiana and Mississippi indicates they “focused intensively on improving early reading skills by implementing instruction based in the science of reading and introducing high-quality, content-based reading materials and statewide tutoring programs.” While other states and school districts have followed suit, these efforts may face scrutiny over stagnant performance or decline. Doubling down on delivery, rather than pulling the plug, is critical to making progress.

Focusing on what works does not mean avoiding innovation entirely (several bright spot states and districts implemented new or innovative strategies like high-dosage tutoring, teacher pipeline efforts, and charter schools). It does mean focusing on getting implementation right—like fine-tuning tutoring dosages. Bright spots demonstrate that evidence-based strategies that make room for innovation can spur long-term growth.

3. Confront brutal facts and get to work improving them. Rather than spin results for short-term gain, state leaders should name what’s unacceptable and set clear goals to improve—with a focus on students most in need. Progress starts with knowing where you stand and defining where you need to go. Mississippi set goals to reduce the proficiency gap for Black students in 2017—and has seen improved NAEP scores for these students since then. Louisiana's updated accountability system now places additional weight on how well schools support the lowest-performing students. Results can be a catalyst for progress if leaders seize the opportunity.

4. Mobilize stakeholders and build coalitions to sustain success. NAEP results reinforce what many school leaders and parents already feel: The education system does not meet all students’ needs. State leaders can unite key partners by showing how a coordinated effort benefits both students and communities. In Mississippi, a decade-long collaboration among school officials, parents, teachers, policymakers, and community organizations fueled gains. Louisiana Superintendent Cade Brumley credited their success to strong alignment across the governor’s office, legislature, state board, and education agency. Progress isn’t accidental—it’s made through collective action.

Building upon bright spots for a better future

State and district leaders who apply these lessons will be positioned well to make and sustain progress. As Colorado Gov. Jared Polis said, the NAEP “shows that it’s really all hands on deck.” States are already hard at work making plans—like Nebraska, who we are supporting to leverage new Comprehensive Literacy State Development (CLSD) funds to implement evidence-based literacy strategies. 

Instead of remembering this moment for educational decline, let’s learn from the bright spots, dig deep into delivery, and make it the impetus that changed education for the better. As the saying goes: Don’t let a good crisis go to waste.

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Photo by CDC on Unsplash